Early Prison Release Scheme Puts Manchester Victims 2026

Key Points

• Thousands of convicts in England and Wales have been granted conditional release from prison due to severe overcrowding under the provisions of the Sentencing Act 2026.
• While offenders who could get conditional release after serving 40% or 50% of a determinate sentence in custody would only serve one-third of the total sentence and those who used to serve two-thirds of their long sentences would serve only half,
• The first release occurred on 1 October 2026 and saw the release of roughly 700 prisoners; another 650 prisoners were released on 13 October.
• It is estimated that by June 2027, there would be phased releases of about 4,500 convicts, the last batch being those who have spent more than 12 years in prison.
• Among the Punitive Institutions in Greater Manchester whose inmates will be released early according to the new scheme are Strangeways, Forest Bank, Hindley, Buckley Hall and Styal.
• Representatives of victims claim that victims of domestic violence could once again become subject to threat following the release of their offenders back into the community.
• According to Napo, the trade union of probation officers, the Probation Service lacks sufficient staffing to cope with the increased workload.

Manchester (Manchester Mirror) October 29, 2026 — Hundreds of prisoners across England and Wales, including inmates held in Greater Manchester jails, are being released after serving as little as one-third of their sentences under a government scheme intended to prevent prisons from running out of space. The policy began on 1 October and will continue in stages until June 2027.

As reported by the Manchester Evening News, the early release programme applies to prisons including Strangeways, Forest Bank, Hindley, Buckley Hall and Styal. It forms part of the Sentencing Act 2026, which changes the point at which many prisoners serving standard determinate sentences move from custody into the community on licence.

The first wave saw approximately 700 eligible offenders released on 1 October. A second group of about 650 prisoners was released on 13 October. The Manchester Evening News reports that some people released in the first wave have already been rearrested, although the article does not provide a figure or specify the offences involved.

How Does the Early Release Scheme Work?

Under the new rules, prisoners who would previously have been released after serving 40% or 50% of a standard fixed-term sentence will now be released after one-third. A second category of prisoners, who would previously have served two-thirds of their sentence in custody, will now be released at the halfway point.

The BBC reports that about 70,000 offenders are covered by the permanent scheme. The first group included people sentenced to up to 19 months; later phases extend to prisoners serving longer fixed-term sentences, with those serving more than 12 years becoming eligible by June 2027.

Release does not end the sentence. Former prisoners remain on licence in the community and can be recalled to prison if they breach conditions, commit further offences, contact a victim or live at an address not approved by the authorities.

The government has said the scheme includes stricter supervision measures, including expanded electronic tagging, faster access to monitoring data for probation staff, exclusion-zone alerts, random drug testing and restrictions on driving or attending pubs and events.

Why Are Prisons Releasing Inmates Early?

The Ministry of Justice says the measure is needed because prisons in England and Wales are close to full capacity. According to figures cited by the Manchester Evening News, the prison population stood at 86,843 in late August, using nearly 98% of available capacity and leaving fewer than 2,100 spaces.

The newspaper also reports that almost one in four prisoners—23%—was being held in overcrowded conditions, sharing cells designed for fewer people. Overcrowding has been linked to reduced access to rehabilitation programmes, longer periods locked in cells, and higher levels of violence and self-harm.

Government projections cited in the report suggest the prison population could exceed 100,000 by May 2030, while capacity is expected to increase only slightly. The Ministry of Justice says the current Labour administration has committed to creating 14,000 additional prison places by 2031.

Which Prisoners Are Excluded?

The scheme does not apply to all offenders. The House of Lords Library says more than 18,000 prisoners serving life sentences or extended sentences are excluded, including people convicted of murder and those judged dangerous by a court.

The BBC reports that prisoners convicted of manslaughter, rape, serious child sexual offences, grooming offences and causing death by dangerous driving are also excluded. Indeterminate sentences, which require Parole Board approval for release, are outside the scheme.

The number of expected early releases was reduced from about 6,000 to about 4,500 after ministers reviewed the policy and removed eligibility for certain serious offences.

What Are Victims’ Groups Saying?

Concerns have been raised by support services working with survivors of domestic and family violence. As reported by the Manchester Evening News, Jane, of The Survivor Project in Salford, said some women had received notifications that their abusers were being released early.

“We’re releasing them and then there’s another victim,” Jane told the Manchester Evening News. She said the system was not rehabilitating offenders and questioned how early release helps victims.

Jane said an abuser could return to a victim’s neighbourhood unless a restraining order was in place, adding that obtaining such an order was not straightforward.

“They could be just around the corner. That victim has to see the same person every single day,”

she said.

The Manchester Evening News reports that The Survivor Project supports people affected by domestic and family violence. Jane said victims already faced barriers when reporting abuse and often encountered lengthy court proceedings.

Is the Probation Service Able to Cope?

Napo, the union representing probation staff, says the service is already significantly under-staffed and that the releases will add further pressure. Its general secretary, Ian Lawrence, told the Manchester Evening News that there were not enough staff to meet current demands.

“It’s not only about early releases; the probation service oversees over 200,000 individuals on probation,” Lawrence said. “If the government genuinely wants to better support victims, it must take the crisis in probation seriously.”

Lawrence told the BBC that probation officers were “absolutely overwhelmed with work” and that many people being released required intensive supervision. He said the sheer number of releases created pressure and that the service needed more resources.

Napo has also warned that the changes could affect public protection. In reporting carried by Civil Service World, the union said thousands of domestic abuse perpetrators and stalkers could be released early, creating what it described as real public-protection concerns.

What Does the Government Say?

A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said the government had inherited a justice system “on the verge of collapse” and had taken immediate action. The spokesperson said ministers were developing 14,000 additional prison places, applying strict controls on offenders, investing record amounts in probation and victim support, and reforming recall rules to reduce the prison population.

The spokesperson added that the government would deport thousands of foreign criminals and end what it described as injustices in imprisonment for public protection sentences.

The Prison Reform Trust said the government was right to introduce the early release scheme because no immediate alternative could reduce pressure on prisons as quickly. However, a spokesperson told the Manchester Evening News that no single reform could resolve a capacity crisis that had developed over decades.

The organisation said ministers should also address rising recall rates and problems in the remand system, and should reserve prison for the most serious offences while doing more to reduce reoffending in the community.

What Happens Next?

The Manchester Evening News reports that eight further release dates are scheduled, with the final date set for 8 June 2027. The BBC says around 4,500 prisoners are due to be released in total, although later reporting refers to about 5,000 scheduled releases after policy changes.

Future tranches are expected to include prisoners serving progressively longer sentences. From January 2027, the scheme is due to cover offenders serving up to five years and nine months, followed by those serving up to seven years and six months in February and up to nine years in March.

The scheme is one element of the Sentencing Act 2026. Other measures include shorter prison terms, longer suspended sentences, earlier automatic release, stricter probation requirements and fixed recall limits.

Background of the Development

Prison overcrowding in England and Wales has built up over many years. The Manchester Evening News reports that, despite falling crime rates since the mid-1990s, more offenders have received custodial sentences and served longer terms. England and Wales now imprison more people per head than nearly every other country in Western Europe, second only to Poland.

A previous emergency early release scheme began in September 2024, when prisons reached 99% capacity. Under that scheme, eligible prisoners served 40% of their sentences rather than 50%. The Manchester Evening News reports that the measure provided short-term relief, but a rise in licence recalls reduced its longer-term effect.

Recalls have increased sharply. More than 51,400 people had their licences revoked in the year to March 2026, a 28% rise on the previous year, compared with about 9,000 in 2000. The number of defendants held on remand has also risen by 68% since 2019, partly because of court backlogs following the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Ministry of Justice estimates that, between 2010 and 2024, the previous Conservative government built thousands of new prison places but closed a similar number, producing a net gain of fewer than 500 spaces. The current government says it is pursuing a larger prison-building programme alongside reforms intended to reduce demand for custody.

Prediction: What Could This Mean for Victims and Communities?

For victims, particularly survivors of domestic abuse, the development may increase anxiety about perpetrators returning to local communities before sentences have fully elapsed. The concerns raised by The Survivor Project suggest that notification, safety planning and access to protective orders will become especially important for people affected by releases in Greater Manchester and elsewhere.

For released prisoners, the scheme may offer an earlier route back into employment, family life and community-based rehabilitation, but only if housing, supervision and support services are available. The BBC has reported that some freed prisoners described overcrowded prison conditions and concerns about the lack of support waiting for them outside.

For the wider public, the policy’s impact will depend largely on whether probation services can monitor licence conditions effectively. If supervision capacity does not keep pace with the number of releases, the risk of breaches, recalls and further offending may rise; if tagging, exclusion zones and drug testing operate as intended, the government argues that community supervision can provide a stricter alternative to remaining in an overcrowded prison.

For Greater Manchester specifically, the scheme may ease pressure on local jails in the short term, but it is likely to place continuing demands on probation, victim services, housing providers and local policing as further release waves continue until June 2027.