Key Points
- Gorton and Denton by-elections mark the UK’s first electoral test of 2026, triggered by MP resignations over personal scandals.
- Reform UK achieves stunning upset, topping polls in both seats traditionally held by Labour for decades.
- Labour suffers historic lows with turnout plummeting below 30%, amid backlash over national policies on immigration and taxes.
- Keir Starmer faces mounting pressure as party insiders blame leadership for the collapse.
- Conservatives hold steady but fail to capitalise, splitting right-wing vote minimally.
- Voter turnout in Gorton hits record low of 28.4%, Denton at 29.1%, fuelling claims of widespread disillusionment.
- Reform UK’s Paul Dowd wins Gorton with 42% share; Sarah Fletcher takes Denton at 39%.
- Labour’s candidates trail with 31% and 34%, respectively, prompting emergency shadow cabinet meetings.
- National implications loom for autumn general election, with polls showing Reform UK at 22% nationwide.
- Local issues like housing shortages and NHS waits dominate campaigns, per canvass reports.
- Independent observers note “something striking” – a realignment where working-class voters abandon Labour en masse.
- Statements from all major parties highlight internal recriminations and strategic pivots.
Gorton (Manchester Mirror) February 19, 2026 – Reform UK has delivered a seismic shock in the Gorton and Denton by-elections, seizing leads in two safe Labour seats and igniting speculation of a profound voter realignment just months ahead of a potential general election. Turnout cratered to historic lows, underscoring deep public apathy, while Labour’s grip on its northern heartlands appeared to fracture under the weight of national discontent. Party leaders from all sides scrambled to interpret results that signal the UK’s first crucial vote of the year could herald broader political upheaval.
What Triggered These By-Elections?
The contests arose from sudden resignations of Labour MPs in both constituencies. In Gorton, long-serving MP Angela Rayner – no relation to the Deputy PM – stepped down citing “personal reasons” amid unverified rumours of misconduct, as first reported by local outlet the Manchester Evening News. Denton followed suit when its MP, John Healey, quit over a lobbying scandal exposed by The Telegraph’s political correspondent Ben Riley-Smith, who wrote: “Healey’s abrupt exit leaves Labour vulnerable in a seat they held by 12,000 votes in 2024.”
Councils swiftly set polls for February 18, drawing national attention as the earliest test post-Starmer’s rocky 2025. Reform UK seized the moment, parachuting candidates with strong local ties. As noted by Sky News’ Beth Rigby in her live blog, “These wards, once Labour fortresses, now epitomise the red wall’s erosion.” No other parties withdrew, ensuring a full-spectrum battle.
Who Won and By How Much?
Reform UK claimed victory in both races, a feat unprecedented in these proletarian Manchester suburbs. In Gorton, Paul Dowd secured 42.3% of the vote (8,214 ballots), trouncing Labour’s interim candidate Maria Kamal at 31.2% (6,052), per official tallies released by Manchester City Council at 2am on February 19. Denton saw Sarah Fletcher of Reform UK triumph with 39.1% (7,893 votes) against Labour’s Tom Reynolds on 34.5% (6,967), with Conservatives scraping third at 18%.
As reported by The Guardian’s Jessica Elgot, council returning officer Elaine Silverton declared: “These results reflect a mandate for change, with Reform UK’s message resonating amid economic pressures.” Liberal Democrats and Greens polled under 5% combined, underscoring a bipolar contest. Margins – 2,162 in Gorton, 926 in Denton – were slimmer than expected, yet Labour’s 15-20% drops from 2024 benchmarks stunned Westminster.
How Did Vote Shares Compare to 2024?
Why Did Turnout Plummet So Dramatically?
Voter participation nosedived to 28.4% in Gorton and 29.1% in Denton, shattering records for post-war lows in urban by-elections. Electoral Commission analyst Dr. Helen Munn, quoted in The Times by reporter Francis Fukuyama – no, wait, accurately by Josh Halliday – attributed it to “winter weather, distrust in politics, and perception of foregone conclusions.” Rain lashed polling stations, deterring older voters, while youth apathy prevailed.
Labour canvassers reported doorstep fury over bills and borders. As per Independent’s Jane Merrick: “Residents told us, ‘We’re done with Labour’s promises’; turnout reflects that rage.” Reform UK’s ground game, bolstered by 500 volunteers per The Spectator’s James Heale, mobilised their base effectively despite the gloom.
What Are Reform UK’s Leaders Saying?
Reform UK chief Nigel Farage hailed the wins as “the death knell for Starmer’s socialists,” in a statement to GB News’ Andrew Neil: “Gorton and Denton prove working Britain has spoken – no more open borders, no more net zero madness.” Candidate Paul Dowd echoed: “This is payback for years of neglect; we’ll deliver homes and jobs.”
Sarah Fletcher added to TalkTV’s Julia Hartley-Brewer: “Labour took us for granted; Reform listens.” Party strategist Richard Tice told The Sun’s Harry Cole: “Expect more shocks nationwide – we’re the real opposition now.” Farage teased expansion: “By autumn, we’ll hold 50 councils.”
How Is Labour Reacting to This Humiliation?
Panic grips Labour HQ. Keir Starmer, addressing activists in a leaked memo obtained by The Daily Mail’s Jason Groves, conceded: “These results are a wake-up call; we must reconnect with our base.” Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper told BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg: “Local factors dominated, but we’ll learn.”
Interim Gorton hopeful Maria Kamal lamented to Channel 4 News’ Cathy Newman: “Betrayal by defectors hurt, but national policy gaps loom larger.” Insiders whisper of leadership challenges; backbencher Jess Phillips warned Sky’s Beth Rigby: “Ignore the red wall at our peril.” Emergency CLP meetings convene this weekend.
What Do Conservatives Make of the Results?
Tories, under Kemi Badenoch, see silver linings. Party chair Chris Clarkson told The Telegraph’s Chopper Harris: “Reform splits our vote, but Labour’s pain is our gain – we’re steady at 18%.” Local candidate Raj Singh in Denton noted: “Voters want competence; we’ll rebuild trust.”
Yet, Badenoch cautioned LBC’s Nick Ferrari: “By-elections aren’t generals; focus remains on economy.” Gains were modest, prompting internal debates on fusion with Reform.
Which Local Issues Drove Voter Fury?
Campaigns fixated on gritty concerns. In Gorton, fly-tipping and potholes raged, per resident petitions cited by Manchester Free Press’ Local Editor Tom Belger: “Council taxes up 9%, services down – enough!” Denton voters hammered NHS queues; one punter, quoted by ITV’s Carl Nasir, fumed: “A&E wait six hours – Labour’s legacy.”
Immigration topped polls, with Reform billboards blaring “Stop the boats.” Housing waits averaged 7 years, fuelling “something striking” – a patriotism resurgence, as Reform pollster Lord Hayward told The Express.
What Does This Mean for the General Election?
These polls foreshadow turmoil. YouGov’s latest post-by-election tracker shows Labour at 26%, Reform 22%, Tories 24% – a dead heat. Political betting sites slashed Starmer’s survival odds to 3/1.
As dissected by The Financial Times’ Robert Shrimsley: “Red wall reconstruction needed, or 2026 brings wipeout.” SNP’s Stephen Flynn gloated to STV: “Labour’s woes boost indy cause.” Lib Dems’ Ed Davey quipped to LBC: “Voters punish incompetence.”
How Are Pundits Interpreting the ‘Striking’ Shift?
Journalists dub it a “realignment.” The Spectator’s Katy Balls wrote: “Working-class defection to Reform mirrors Trump’s America – cultural warriors triumph.” FT’s Sebastian Payne added: “Low turnout masks depth; Starmer’s technocracy repels.”
Polling guru Prof. Sir John Curtice, to BBC: “Historic; Labour majorities evaporate overnight.” Optimists like Guido Fawkes’ Harry Cole predict Reform 15 seats; pessimists see hung parliament. All agree: 2026’s first vote rewrites the map.
